In a surprise move, BJP has thrown its weight in support of Congress on the Women's Reservation Bill. But with a rider, that there should be a debate on the House.
This has been by far the biggest stakes game seen in the floor of the house on an issue with Cong Allies threatening to derail the Govt on this issue, and they finding an unlikely ally in the biggest opposition party.
Considering the threat at hand, Congress is in a dilemma, whether to risk its Govt for the sake of getting their manifesto fulfilled, while if they fail to do so, would be barbed through out election campaign for failing to deliver on this issue. 'Political risk', that's what's being said in the news.
So what if they decide to go through. Well, my guess is that if they do, then a victory is still not guaranteed, as the outcome of the 'debate' might be more stalling and giving more time for the allies to withdraw support to the Govt and reduce Cong to a minority party.
Beyond that, would the Bill be passed? My guess is that BJP will ask Cong to first prove its strength as a majority or call for elections, effectively killing the Bill tabled at the house.
So the big question is, is Cong willing to take the Womens Reservation Bill issue to the electorate? Or will they play it safe?
One thing though, BJP's smart play ensured that Cong has much more at stake than BJP on this issue, and BJP might still end up looking moderate on this issue, thereby alienating the smaller allies in the eyes of voters, if it comes down as an electoral issue.
Time will tell.
Tuesday, March 09, 2010
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